A Guest Commentary Written by Julius Kullie Kanubah

Monrovia- In the aftermath of the 2020 Special Senatorial Election, typically referred to as “Mid-Term Election,” in reference to the midway of Liberia’s six-year Presidential System of two-terms, there have been a developing notion by some for a Cabinet Reshuffle by President George Weah.

Central to the call is the claim that because the ruling party of President Weah suffered electoral defeats in some key Senate races, it was only prudent for the President to let go of his Cabinet, if not, make key changes affecting his henchmen, who occupy some of the most key Government positions.

Underlying the notion is the claim that responsibility falls on the President to come to the reality or the “rude-awakening” that his Policy Agenda for Liberia, has failed because of his henchmen: they have completely closed every space for the President to think outside the box; hence, the President’s continuous dependence on his henchmen as an in-group, groupthink.

In making these claims and advancing the call for a Cabinet Reshuffle, the direction of policy failures is put squarely on the henchmen. For example, some recommend that the Minister of Finance and Development Planning, Samuel Tweah, should be let go. Tweah, it is advanced, has not only mismanaged the economy, he has been one of the bad influences, if not, the worst on the decision-making of President Weah. Some even refer to Tweah as claiming that he is the “most educated” member of the President’s original party, in-group. Tweah himself credits himself for the Weah experiment, which he sees, as “smart” on his part.

Others point to the Minister of State for Presidential Affairs, Nathaniel McGill, as being one of the Cabinet Officials that needs to be shown the doors out. McGill, as Chief of Staff to the President, is blamed for almost everything surrounding what the President does or does not.

Many names, if not, the entire Cabinet should be changed, it is thus recommended by some.

Among the many voices for Cabinet Reshuffle and the “rude-awakening” discourse, are former officials of the Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf – Joseph Boakai-era. There are, in fact, claims of a so-called “Sirleaf Playbook” to Politics in the face of electoral defeats in legislative races by a ruling party – whether during presidential and general elections, Special Senatorial Election, or By-election.

If it exists at all, no one has seen the Sirleaf Playbook, except those citing it.

The recent use of the term Playbook is perhaps a borrowed language from the Democratic Party Administration of Barack Obama in relation to the Republican Party Administration of Donald Trump in the wake of the Coronavirus Pandemic.

The Democrats have consistently argued that they left behind a Playbook for the succeeding Administration in case of a Health Emergency, not least in case of other national security threats to the United States. To their credits, the Democrats point to the written texts of the Playbook, which is empirical than, as yet, the ideal Sirleaf Playbook. The Demcrats’ Playbook is actually a part of the Handover Notes from the out-coming to the incoming Administration. It is a routine.

Interestingly, the Democrats’ Playbook for the succeeding Administration of President Trump is, in fact, in part, related to Liberia and other West African States. The Ebola Epidemic is a key theme.

In successfully handling Ebola abroad, in poorly governed spaces as Liberia (even under Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf and Joseph Boakai), the Democrats believe that American lives were secured at-home rather than being threatened or extinguished – as the Coronavirus Pandemic has sadly shown under the Donald Trump Administration.

The Democrats’ logic here is simple: fight Epidemic or Pandemic abroad than allowing it to reach the shores of America; badly governed spaces as Liberia are “virus-infested”, “conflict-ridden”; hence, U.S. AID must flow to spaces as Liberia in order to protect Americans at-home, while capitalism thrives by its destructive extractive character abroad.

However, Trump is not a globalist or firmed believer in the U.S. Aiding of countries as Liberia. In fact, under Trump, U.S. AID to Liberia has decreased significantly and is at the lowest in postwar contexts, especially when compared to the 12-year rule of Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, who is known as the “darling” of Western Aid Donors. Trump is not aiding Weah with AID as Presidents George Bush and Barack Obama did for Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf and Joseph Boakai. There are many reasons beyond the Sirleaf brand for this loss of vast American aid to Liberia under Weah!

Whether U.S. AID to Liberia has enabled or limited Liberia’s development remains a puzzle. But in making reference to the Sirleaf Playbook, some former Sirleaf officials have the belief that Sirleaf engaged in substantive changes to her Cabinet in the wake of legislative electoral defeats. Their claim is that from the Sirleaf Playbook, a targeted approach was designed to “recruit” or “co-opt” the “idealists” from the opposition, including the original Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) of George Weah. Weah himself became Sirleaf “Peace Ambassador”, though he later left the position having sensed the politics of co-optation and accommodation for peace and stability as against contentious politics in a postconflict space.

Accordingly, the Sirleaf Playbookists recommendation is that Weah should copy and paste from the unseen Sirleaf Playbook in order to “expand his base”, using Cabinet Reshuffle as a mechanism and Cabinet and other Positions as the incentives to recruit or co-opt the opposition or other Liberians in order to help the Sinking Ship of the Weah Crew. This is a fundamentally flawed approach to governance in relation to the institutionalization of not only political parties but crucially political accountability. It is one reason, corruption became a “vampire of development” under Johnson-Sirleaf – Joseph Boakai. Governance-by-co-optation is counter-productive and unproductive!

First, midterm elections, under democratic presidential system, are almost always likely to be won by the opposition, especially in dominant or semi-dominant two-party system with a strong or emerging countervailing legislature of single-member geographical electoral constituency or even double-member electoral constituency. While losing a midterm election in key races is bruising for a ruling party, it is not a case that effecting a Cabinet Reshuffle can make up for the loss. Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf and Joseph Boakai did lose the 2014 midterm election without gaining significant wins in the subsequent legislative elections in key races. The Sirleaf Playbookists must explain this, if it exists on their pages.

Second, the Sirleaf – Boakai administration, although did effect some shifts in the Cabinet, some few months after the midterm election, those shifts were somewhat customary: persistent recycling-rotation of Cabinet Officials. It was not because of the midterm election, but rather, a better-late-than-never mentality. Some founding Cabinet or Senior Officials of the Sirleaf – Boakai-era remained in Government, despite all the legislative electoral losses sustained at the hands of the opposition for 12-years. The Sirleaf Playbookists must check and make reference to the pages. If Weah were to reshuffle based on their calls – whatever the motives, it would be a fatal mistake to copy and paste the recycling-rotating page of the so-called Sirleaf Playbook. Weah already, in fact, started this with the transfer of Prof Wilson Tarpeh, rather than letting him go.

Third, the Sirleaf – Boakai administration did not engage in a Cabinet Reshuffle in the immediate aftermath of the 2014 midterm election, in which the favourite son of and Senior Advisor to the President as well as the President’s Anointed Board Chairman of the multi-million and the subsequently mismanaged National Oil Company of Liberia, Robert Sirleaf, lost to then opposition politician George Weah. The puzzle becomes, why the Sirleaf Playbookists are not making reference to this from their pages? In fact, the Unity Party of Sirleaf did not support her son and took a radical turn in opposition to the so-called Sirleaf Playbook. We need explanation from the Sirleaf Playbookists as to why she supported her son against the institutions of the Party.

Fourth, in calling for a Cabinet Reshuffle, there is both an explicit and implicit direction of blame: The Cabinet is squarely to blame. In putting blame squarely for midterm electoral losses on key Cabinet Officials, the question arises as to who is really to blame: the Captain of the Sinking Ship or the Crew of the Captain of the Sinking Ship? The Captain is a part of the Crew while the Ship with the Crew is steered by the Captain. When the ship is sinking, the Crew is always on board and the Captain is always the last to depart – even in death. While it is true that Weah is the Captain of the CDCship and he is destined to be the last to depart the CDCship, it would be useless and worryingly troubling when the Senior Crew/Cabinet of the CDCship is let go by the Captain. The CDCship is Sinking in the middle of the ocean: how can the Captain let go the Crew in no-man’s land? A Tweah thrown in the ocean by a Weah? A McGill thrown in the ocean by a Weah? 2023 is around and doing so will lead to a rapid capsize of the CDCship than the slow motion we are beginning to watch.

The Sirleaf – Boakai Administration did not throw away neither henchmen Augustine Ngafuan, nor Amara Konneh, despite repeated calls and in the wake of Budget deficits and Budget shortfalls, not least, in the context of the Sirleaf – Boakai-era struggled-economy, underpinned by the vampire of corruption and a variety of neoliberal extractivisms that dispossessd and weakened the poor. The Sirleaf Playbookists should explain from their pages why some under-fired Sirleaf – Boakai Cabinet and Senior Officials persisted under their System of Administration and why Weah must not copy and paste this extent of persistence from the Sirleaf Playbook.

Fifth and finally, there is a growing narrative that appears to continuously portray some Liberians or former Liberian officials as more qualified or better equipped than their compatriots serving in the current Administration of George Weah. Since 2004 and the elections season of 2005, this has been the narrative that those following George Weah and the original CDC and the current CDC are not better equipped to govern Liberia. In this sense, Weah and his CDC partisans are portrayed as “They Know Nothing.” Hence, apparently the chain of recommendations from some – whether in the opposition or civic sphere! While it is true we all do recommend to Government about how to govern, we must not and never think that “We Know All” and that “They Know Nothing”. They must be given the chance to lead by learning, trial and error. We too had similar chances, despite the differences in our skills, talents, energy, entrepreneurship, and innovation.

Citizens-oriented or policy recommendations in relation to governance are neither worse nor better, neither bad nor good, per se. Rather, it is a matter of what results are produced and whether it affects some positively or negatively or moderately and how we can learn while also unlearning. How Weah and the CDC govern will continue to teach us how to govern when we get the chance, again?!

If the Sirleaf Playbook exists as it is being referenced now, one may wonder: where was the Sirleaf Playbook when CDC won many Legislative Elections against Sirleaf and when the CDC won against Joseph Boakai in 2017? If we think “We Know All” and “They Know Nothing”, why did we fail at governance or fail to win the votes? Governance is about effects.

We need a rethink: The governance practices of the Ellen Johnson Sirleaf – Joseph Boakai-era led to the production of George Weah as President, today. Today, the governance practices of the George Weah administration have led to the production of Darius Dillon, as Senator, yesterday and today. If we think “We Know All” and “They Know Nothing”, then, another cyclical path is beginning, which, to temporarily borrow the language, would be another “rude-awakening.” Whether this emerges from the invisible Sirleaf Playbook or enters this unseen Sirleaf Playbook will be a matter of retrospection.

It must not necessarily be the case that Weah must change his Cabinet because “We Know All, They Know Nothing” and that the “rude-awakening” has dawn. Our electoral politics are beginning to show us some emerging patterns about voters’ behaviour in relation to opposition and ruling political parties and other candidates as much as geographical constituency electoral practices. Let’s head into 2023 knowing that governance from above than from below is not the single answer and even combining both is not the only way. The effects of Cabinet Changes or Cabinet Retention in Liberia are also remarkably less well-understood than the anecdotal suppositions that it is prudent to do so, especially after midterm election.

What we should, perhaps, concentrate on is how those elected in midterm election can work to effectively make governance to effectively work for all Liberians. The Powers of the Legislature are very extensive in Liberia and, if only, we have a better quality Legislature than what we have had, the President and the executive-bureaucracy as well as the Judiciary and other institutions of Government would be as effective as much with own extensive powers. If we believe there is a Sirleaf Playbook, then, let’s give it to our Legislators for governance. That is, if the Sirleaf Playbook, is not itself fundamentally flawed. Captain Weah should necessarily stick with his crew of the CDCship. They trusted him to steer than many of us trust him. “We Know All, They Know Nothing.” Our Mindset.